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U.S. Retail Sales: Moving Markets by Ignoring Error Margins

“Retail sales up 0.3% in February” is what you read in the headlines. In response, U.S. stock markets moved higher. Apparently the markets hope that consumers are finally starting to spend again....

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Brazilian Interest Rates: Will They Ever Learn?

In early June, Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) raised their target for the Selic interest rate to 12.25%.[1]  Media pundits are predicting a huge flow of hot capital into Brazil in pursuit...

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Marketplace MegaFail Inflation Edition

On May 1, 2013, “Marketplace” aired a segment about inflation.  The show extolled the many benefits of “a little more inflation.”  This is a Marketplace MegaFail inflation edition. Titled “Should we...

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Inflation is Right Around the Corner

Source: Wall Street Journal [Edited March 19, 2014 to clarify the Fed's role in all this.] Inflation is right around the corner.  And that will pose a major challenge to the Federal Reserve. Federal...

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Prof. Taylor Fails History

  Paul Volcker [Updated June 28, 2014 to add graph of M1 growth and link to Excel workbook.] “Our credibility will ultimately be judged by how we do on both of these mandates, not just the price...

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Watch for Interest Rates to Rise Soon

I missed this story on the Wall Street Journal website yesterday. Thanks to my lovely wife for pointing it out. “Overheard: Banks Shift From Treasurys to Loans” says that banks are chasing yields by...

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Is There Inflation in Our Future?

Copyright © TXu 2-262-572 March 24, 2021. All Rights Reserved. This is the executive summary of a much longer piece.  The full article is the pdf below. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary...

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Measuring Expected Inflation

Copyright 2021, Tony Lima. All rights reserved. [pdf version available after the endnotes] This article was spurred by an entry in the Wall Street Journal (May 23, 2021).[1] Titled, “Inflation Forces...

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Facebook Factcheck Fail

There was a big Facebook factcheck fail about a week ago.  It started when I posted this: (click for larger image) Seems straightforward.  Imagine my surprise when Facebook flagged it. (click for...

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Inflation, Its Causes, and Money

In the long run, inflation is always caused by excessive increases in the money supply.  We can (and do) argue about how long it takes an economy to reach the long run.  But it’s probably longer than a...

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Inflation Update

 I was browsing the financial news today and ran across an interesting bit of data.  The yield on 30 year TIPS was negative.  This is unusual (to put it mildly).  People are paying the U.S. Treasury...

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Inflation’s Big Driver: Transportation

This is part 3 of my series about inflation. And this will wrap up my discussion of the subject for the rest of 2021 (with any luck). Here I’m concerned with inflation’s big driver: transportation.[1]...

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Marketplace MegaFail Inflation Edition

On May 1, 2013, “Marketplace” aired a segment about inflation.  The show extolled the many benefits of “a little more inflation.”  This is a Marketplace MegaFail inflation edition. Titled “Should we...

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Clik here to view.

Inflation is Right Around the Corner

Source: Wall Street Journal [Edited March 19, 2014 to clarify the Fed’s role in all this.] Inflation is right around the corner.  And that will pose a major challenge to the Federal Reserve. Federal...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Prof. Taylor Fails History

  Paul Volcker [Updated June 28, 2014 to add graph of M1 growth and link to Excel workbook.] “Our credibility will ultimately be judged by how we do on both of these mandates, not just the price...

View Article


Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Watch for Interest Rates to Rise Soon

I missed this story on the Wall Street Journal website yesterday. Thanks to my lovely wife for pointing it out. “Overheard: Banks Shift From Treasurys to Loans” says that banks are chasing yields by...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Is There Inflation in Our Future?

Copyright © TXu 2-262-572 March 24, 2021. All Rights Reserved. This is the executive summary of a much longer piece.  The full article is the pdf below. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary...

View Article


Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Measuring Expected Inflation

Copyright 2021, Tony Lima. All rights reserved. [pdf version available after the endnotes] This article was spurred by an entry in the Wall Street Journal (May 23, 2021).[1] Titled, “Inflation Forces...

View Article

Image may be NSFW.
Clik here to view.

Prof. Taylor Fails History

  Paul Volcker [Updated June 28, 2014 to add graph of M1 growth and link to Excel workbook.] “Our credibility will ultimately be judged by how we do on both of these mandates, not just the price...

View Article

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Clik here to view.

The Tax Foundation Dissects the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

A few days ago, the Tax Foundation dissected the inflation reduction act of 2022.  Author William McBride summarized the results in a tweet thread (posted below as a pdf courtesy of Threadreaderapp.)...

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